Android and Fragmentation

The analyst here raises a valid point about Android fragmentation.

However, it doesn't necessarily mean that Android will go the same way as J2ME, and here are some very good reasons why:

• Developers will be free to choose how many handsets they wish to support. In J2ME, where distribution is dominated by mobile carriers, developers are almost always made to port their games to almost ALL handsets out there. The cost structure is simply off the charts. It could take $50K to make a game, and then $300K to port it. If developers can choose to port to the 20% of handsets that generates 80% of the sales (going by the 20/80 rule), mobile markets would be a lot more viable. All Android market needs is a way to target handsets properly.
• J2ME fragmentation takes place even at the OS and J2ME KVM layer, resulting in vastly different behaviors on various different handsets. In Android, where the OS layer is common, fragmentation is likely to cause less problems.